China Inflation Rate

China's annual inflation rate rose to 0.3% in April 2024, compared with market estimates and March's figure of a 0.1%. It was the third straight month of consumer inflation, amid ongoing recovery in domestic demand despite a fragile economic revival. Non-food inflation accelerated (0.9% vs 0.7% in March), with prices rising further for clothing (1.6% vs 1.6%), housing (0.2% vs 0.2%), health (1.6% vs 1.5%), and education (1.8% vs 1.8%). At the same time, transport cost added 0.1% after falling 1.3% in the prior month, as some local governments recently have been raising utility prices, such as natural gas, and train fares. On the food side, prices continued to fall, marking the 10th consecutive month of decrease (-2.7% vs -2.7%). The core consumer prices, deducting food and energy prices, increased by 0.7% yoy in April, compared with a 0.6% rise in March. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.1%, a reversal from a 1.0% fall in March which was the steepest decline in three years.

China's consumer prices edged up 0.1% yoy in March 2024, compared with market forecasts of 0.4% and after a 0.7% rise in the previous month. The notable slowdown came as the effects of the Lunar New Year waned, with non-food inflation easing (0.7% vs 1.1% in February) as the cost of education moderated sharply (1.8% vs 3.9%) while transport prices fell further (-1.3% vs -0.4%). Simultaneously, inflation was unchanged for clothing (at 1.6%), housing (at 0.2%), and health (at 1.5%). On the food side, prices fell much steeper (-2.7% vs -0.9%), as costs of pork and fresh vegetables turned lower following rises in February. The core consumer prices, deducting food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% yoy in March, slowing from the prior 1.2% which was the fastest rise since January 2022. Monthly, the CPI decreased 1.0%, the first fall in four months and a reversal from a 1.0% rise in February. It came worse than estimates of a 0.5% drop, pointing to the steepest monthly fall in 3 years.

China's consumer prices rose by 0.7% yoy in February 2024, above market forecasts of 0.3% and a turnaround from the sharpest drop in over 14 years of 0.8% in January. The latest result was the first consumer inflation since last August, hitting its highest level in 11 months due to robust spending during the Lunar New Year holiday. Food prices declined the least in eight months (-0.9% vs -5.9% in January), reflecting upturns in costs of pork and fresh vegetables. Meantime, non-food inflation sharply accelerated to 1.1% from the prior 0.4%, with prices rising further for clothing (1.6% vs 1.6%), housing (0.2% vs 0.3%), health (1.5% vs 1.3%), and education (3.9% vs 1.3%); while a fall in transport prices strongly moderated (-0.4% vs -2.4%). The core CPI, deducting food and energy prices, increased by 1.2% yoy in February, the most since January 2022. Monthly, consumer prices increased 1.0%, marking the third straight month of rise and hitting its highest level since January 2021.